National Bank Of Canada: Real Estate Prices Rise, But Could Change With The Recession

Saturday, May 23, 2020   /   by Sergey Korostensky

National Bank Of Canada: Real Estate Prices Rise, But Could Change With The Recession

Canadian real estate prices climbed according to another index, but it had a limited impact on sentiment. The Teranet – National Bank of Canada House Price Index (TNBC HPI) made a substantial climb in April. Despite the big increase for prices, the Big Six bank warned a rapidly changing macro environment could change the direction of this trend.

TNBC HPI

The TNBC HPI tracks the movement of resale home prices across Canada. It’s similar to the CREA HPI, with the point of measurement being the difference. The TNBC HPI uses land registry data for their transactions. CREA and local boards use the date when the sale is entered into the MLS. CREA’s data point occurs before the land registry, but is also limited to only board sales. The TNBC’s data is later, but more comprehensive.

In a normal market, the trend might not look all that different – possibly a little delayed. In a rapidly changing market, more sales tend to fall through. The TNBC HPI would better capture the true movement of prices in this case. However, there’s still that registry lag to consider. April’s numbers are going to be a better view of where the buyer mindset was in March, than it will be in the actual month.

Canadian Home Prices Accelerate, But That Could Come To An End Soon

The C11, a price index of Canada’s 11 largest markets, showed a substantial movement last month. Prices increased 1.35% in April, when compared to the previous month. Compared to the same month last year, prices are now 5.27% higher. NBC noted the increase for April was unusually high, being twice the average gain for the past 10 Aprils. Six out of eleven of the cities reached new all-time highs according to the index. They warned this could change with the economy approaching a recession.

Teranet-National Bank HPI C11 (Annual Change)

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Canada’s 11 largest cities, according to the TNB HPI.

C11Mar 2000Sep 2000Mar 2001Sep 2001Mar 2002Sep 2002Mar 2003Sep 2003Mar 2004Sep 2004Mar 2005Sep 2005Mar 2006Sep 2006Mar 2007Sep 2007Mar 2008Sep 2008Mar 2009Sep 2009Mar 2010Sep 2010Mar 2011Sep 2011Mar 2012Sep 2012Mar 2013Sep 2013Mar 2014Sep 2014Mar 2015Sep 2015Mar 2016Sep 2016Mar 2017Sep 2017Mar 2018Sep 2018Mar 2019Sep 2019Mar 2020-1001020304050Percent
Month C11
Mar 2000 4.3
Apr 2000 4.22
May 2000 3.91
Jun 2000 4.12
Jul 2000 4.24
Aug 2000 4.68
Sep 2000 4.67
Oct 2000 4.55
Nov 2000 4.62
Dec 2000 4.38
Jan 2001 4.53
Feb 2001 4.36
Mar 2001 4.49
Apr 2001 4.15
May 2001 4.21
Jun 2001 4.31
Jul 2001 4.52
Aug 2001 4.77
Sep 2001 4.97
Oct 2001 5.38
Nov 2001 5.48
Dec 2001 5.51
Jan 2002 5.56
Feb 2002 6
Mar 2002 6.82
Apr 2002 7.64
May 2002 8.12
Jun 2002 8.41
Jul 2002 8.71
Aug 2002 8.95
Sep 2002 9
Oct 2002 8.9
Nov 2002 8.97
Dec 2002 9.41
Jan 2003 9.51
Feb 2003 9.48
Mar 2003 9.02
Apr 2003 8.6
May 2003 8.26
Jun 2003 7.86
Jul 2003 7.72
Aug 2003 7.62
Sep 2003 7.93
Oct 2003 8.16
Nov 2003 8.18
Dec 2003 7.93
Jan 2004 7.83
Feb 2004 7.92
Mar 2004 8.16
Apr 2004 8.23
May 2004 8.63
Jun 2004 8.85
Jul 2004 8.89
Aug 2004 8.56
Sep 2004 8.03
Oct 2004 7.76
Nov 2004 7.72
Dec 2004 7.96
Jan 2005 7.73
Feb 2005 7.61
Mar 2005 7.12
Apr 2005 7.64
May 2005 7.82
Jun 2005 7.92
Jul 2005 7.25
Aug 2005 8.35
Sep 2005 8.46
Oct 2005 8.6
Nov 2005 8.79
Dec 2005 8.52
Jan 2006 8.68
Feb 2006 8.88
Mar 2006 9.73
Apr 2006 9.84
May 2006 10.21
Jun 2006 10.74
Jul 2006 13.14
Aug 2006 13.71
Sep 2006 14.06
Oct 2006 13.69
Nov 2006 13.75
Dec 2006 13.34
Jan 2007 13.04
Feb 2007 11.66
Mar 2007 11.42
Apr 2007 11.83
May 2007 12.31
Jun 2007 12.71
Jul 2007 11.87
Aug 2007 11
Sep 2007 11.01
Oct 2007 11.04
Nov 2007 10.69
Dec 2007 10.38
Jan 2008 10.47
Feb 2008 10.63
Mar 2008 9.92
Apr 2008 8.69
May 2008 7.4
Jun 2008 6.32
Jul 2008 5.11
Aug 2008 4.16
Sep 2008 3.03
Oct 2008 1.85
Nov 2008 0.43
Dec 2008 -0.79
Jan 2009 -2.53
Feb 2009 -4.04
Mar 2009 -5.47
Apr 2009 -6.42
May 2009 -6.52
Jun 2009 -5.84
Jul 2009 -4.88
Aug 2009 -3.38
Sep 2009 -1.81
Oct 2009 0.31
Nov 2009 2.36
Dec 2009 4.97
Jan 2010 7.24
Feb 2010 9.42
Mar 2010 10.91
Apr 2010 12.19
May 2010 12.68
Jun 2010 12.6
Jul 2010 11.59
Aug 2010 9.92
Sep 2010 7.56
Oct 2010 5.78
Nov 2010 4.46
Dec 2010 3.54
Jan 2011 3.37
Feb 2011 3.38
Mar 2011 3.63
Apr 2011 3.73
May 2011 3.81
Jun 2011 3.99
Jul 2011 4.7
Aug 2011 5.4
Sep 2011 6.5
Oct 2011 6.98
Nov 2011 7.14
Dec 2011 6.8
Jan 2012 6.55
Feb 2012 6.08
Mar 2012 6.05
Apr 2012 5.9
May 2012 5.81
Jun 2012 5.41
Jul 2012 4.82
Aug 2012 4.05
Sep 2012 3.64
Oct 2012 3.43
Nov 2012 3.29
Dec 2012 3.08
Jan 2013 2.67
Feb 2013 2.66
Mar 2013 2.6
Apr 2013 2.04
May 2013 2
Jun 2013 1.81
Jul 2013 1.85
Aug 2013 2.31
Sep 2013 2.68
Oct 2013 3.07
Nov 2013 3.37
Dec 2013 3.81
Jan 2014 4.79
Feb 2014 5.31
Mar 2014 5.17
Apr 2014 5.46
May 2014 5.11
Jun 2014 4.83
Jul 2014 5.1
Aug 2014 5.28
Sep 2014 5.65
Oct 2014 5.64
Nov 2014 5.56
Dec 2014 5.44
Jan 2015 5.17
Feb 2015 4.97
Mar 2015 4.93
Apr 2015 4.49
May 2015 4.54
Jun 2015 5.1
Jul 2015 5.34
Aug 2015 5.59
Sep 2015 5.83
Oct 2015 5.87
Nov 2015 6.32
Dec 2015 6.45
Jan 2016 6.03
Feb 2016 6.56
Mar 2016 7.22
Apr 2016 8.41
May 2016 9.26
Jun 2016 10.18
Jul 2016 11.03
Aug 2016 11.69
Sep 2016 12
Oct 2016 12.17
Nov 2016 11.99
Dec 2016 12.25
Jan 2017 12.76
Feb 2017 13.15
Mar 2017 13.23
Apr 2017 13.2
May 2017 13.76
Jun 2017 14.16
Jul 2017 14.03
Aug 2017 12.92
Sep 2017 11.16
Oct 2017 9.67
Nov 2017 8.99
Dec 2017 8.92
Jan 2018 8.73
Feb 2018 7.54
Mar 2018 6.61
Apr 2018 5.62
May 2018 4.48
Jun 2018 2.87
Jul 2018 1.75
Aug 2018 1.37
Sep 2018 2.14
Oct 2018 2.81
Nov 2018 3.05
Dec 2018 2.51
Jan 2019 2.18
Feb 2019 1.87
Mar 2019 1.53
Apr 2019 1.24
May 2019 0.69
Jun 2019 0.51
Jul 2019 0.44
Aug 2019 0.61
Sep 2019 0.66
Oct 2019 0.99
Nov 2019 1.43
Dec 2019 1.95
Jan 2020 2.07
Feb 2020 2.87
Mar 2020 3.84
Apr 2020 5.27

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Toronto Real Estate Prices Make Second Largest Climb

The index for Toronto showed one of the biggest gains across Canada. The index increased 1.99% in April, and is up 8.19% from last year. The monthly increase was second only to Ottawa, and puts the index at a new all-time high for prices.

Toronto Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Toronto, according to the TNB HPI.

TorontoJul 1999Jan 2000Jul 2000Jan 2001Jul 2001Jan 2002Jul 2002Jan 2003Jul 2003Jan 2004Jul 2004Jan 2005Jul 2005Jan 2006Jul 2006Jan 2007Jul 2007Jan 2008Jul 2008Jan 2009Jul 2009Jan 2010Jul 2010Jan 2011Jul 2011Jan 2012Jul 2012Jan 2013Jul 2013Jan 2014Jul 2014Jan 2015Jul 2015Jan 2016Jul 2016Jan 2017Jul 2017Jan 2018Jul 2018Jan 2019Jul 2019Jan 2020-1001020304050Percent
Month Toronto
Jul 1999 4.09
Aug 1999 3.41
Sep 1999 3.9
Oct 1999 4.29
Nov 1999 4.26
Dec 1999 3.38
Jan 2000 4.14
Feb 2000 4.97
Mar 2000 6.12
Apr 2000 5.83
May 2000 4.13
Jun 2000 4.3
Jul 2000 4.44
Aug 2000 5.74
Sep 2000 5.84
Oct 2000 5.86
Nov 2000 6.24
Dec 2000 5.43
Jan 2001 5.48
Feb 2001 4.99
Mar 2001 5.63
Apr 2001 5.05
May 2001 5.12
Jun 2001 4.97
Jul 2001 5.07
Aug 2001 5.12
Sep 2001 5.14
Oct 2001 5.61
Nov 2001 5.61
Dec 2001 5.72
Jan 2002 5.77
Feb 2002 6.16
Mar 2002 6.75
Apr 2002 7.58
May 2002 8.08
Jun 2002 8.33
Jul 2002 8.3
Aug 2002 8.51
Sep 2002 8.45
Oct 2002 8.09
Nov 2002 8.09
Dec 2002 8.53
Jan 2003 8.67
Feb 2003 8.19
Mar 2003 7.6
Apr 2003 6.97
May 2003 6.52
Jun 2003 5.86
Jul 2003 5.79
Aug 2003 5.71
Sep 2003 5.9
Oct 2003 5.84
Nov 2003 5.63
Dec 2003 5.51
Jan 2004 5.32
Feb 2004 5.28
Mar 2004 4.92
Apr 2004 4.42
May 2004 4.69
Jun 2004 4.83
Jul 2004 5.21
Aug 2004 4.92
Sep 2004 4.88
Oct 2004 4.91
Nov 2004 5.09
Dec 2004 5.14
Jan 2005 5.06
Feb 2005 5.14
Mar 2005 4.81
Apr 2005 5.89
May 2005 6.18
Jun 2005 7.09
Jul 2005 6.2
Aug 2005 7.1
Sep 2005 6.59
Oct 2005 6.56
Nov 2005 6.61
Dec 2005 6.36
Jan 2006 6.17
Feb 2006 5.84
Mar 2006 6.42
Apr 2006 5.94
May 2006 5.79
Jun 2006 5.25
Jul 2006 6.37
Aug 2006 5.71
Sep 2006 5.12
Oct 2006 3.11
Nov 2006 2.69
Dec 2006 2.12
Jan 2007 2.67
Feb 2007 1.27
Mar 2007 1.1
Apr 2007 1.26
May 2007 2.22
Jun 2007 3.34
Jul 2007 4.04
Aug 2007 4.42
Sep 2007 5.29
Oct 2007 7.05
Nov 2007 7.83
Dec 2007 8.37
Jan 2008 8.32
Feb 2008 9.08
Mar 2008 8.62
Apr 2008 7.84
May 2008 6.87
Jun 2008 6.21
Jul 2008 5.58
Aug 2008 5.6
Sep 2008 4.8
Oct 2008 3.05
Nov 2008 0.59
Dec 2008 -0.72
Jan 2009 -2.68
Feb 2009 -5.03
Mar 2009 -6.96
Apr 2009 -7.61
May 2009 -6.68
Jun 2009 -5.53
Jul 2009 -4.54
Aug 2009 -2.87
Sep 2009 -0.89
Oct 2009 2.41
Nov 2009 4.98
Dec 2009 7.42
Jan 2010 9.77
Feb 2010 13.45
Mar 2010 15.86
Apr 2010 17.07
May 2010 16.24
Jun 2010 16.27
Jul 2010 15.22
Aug 2010 12.74
Sep 2010 9.08
Oct 2010 6.35
Nov 2010 4.94
Dec 2010 4.16
Jan 2011 4.07
Feb 2011 3.66
Mar 2011 4.1
Apr 2011 4.3
May 2011 4.8
Jun 2011 4.37
Jul 2011 4.94
Aug 2011 6.15
Sep 2011 8.53
Oct 2011 10.36
Nov 2011 10.75
Dec 2011 9.94
Jan 2012 9.92
Feb 2012 9.98
Mar 2012 10.01
Apr 2012 10.15
May 2012 9.92
Jun 2012 9.51
Jul 2012 9.24
Aug 2012 8.31
Sep 2012 7.85
Oct 2012 6.42
Nov 2012 6.34
Dec 2012 6.29
Jan 2013 5.31
Feb 2013 4.94
Mar 2013 4.72
Apr 2013 4.27
May 2013 3.87
Jun 2013 3.63
Jul 2013 3.38
Aug 2013 3.85
Sep 2013 3.72
Oct 2013 4.09
Nov 2013 4.19
Dec 2013 4.91
Jan 2014 5.82
Feb 2014 6.05
Mar 2014 5.85
Apr 2014 5.78
May 2014 6.05
Jun 2014 6.07
Jul 2014 6.6
Aug 2014 6.66
Sep 2014 7.41
Oct 2014 7.36
Nov 2014 7.25
Dec 2014 7.24
Jan 2015 7.35
Feb 2015 7.32
Mar 2015 7.62
Apr 2015 7.28
May 2015 7.6
Jun 2015 7.8
Jul 2015 8.35
Aug 2015 8.75
Sep 2015 8.65
Oct 2015 9.25
Nov 2015 9.66
Dec 2015 9.46
Jan 2016 8.62
Feb 2016 9
Mar 2016 9.04
Apr 2016 10.51
May 2016 10.58
Jun 2016 12.39
Jul 2016 13.25
Aug 2016 14.59
Sep 2016 16.4
Oct 2016 17.39
Nov 2016 18.51
Dec 2016 19.75
Jan 2017 20.94
Feb 2017 22.95
Mar 2017 24.8
Apr 2017 26.34
May 2017 28.73
Jun 2017 29.26
Jul 2017 27.96
Aug 2017 23.93
Sep 2017 18.04
Oct 2017 13.43
Nov 2017 10.65
Dec 2017 9.02
Jan 2018 8.37
Feb 2018 6.19
Mar 2018 4.31
Apr 2018 1.89
May 2018 -0.34
Jun 2018 -2.8
Jul 2018 -4.01
Aug 2018 -3.34
Sep 2018 -0.78
Oct 2018 1.88
Nov 2018 3.3
Dec 2018 3.72
Jan 2019 3.63
Feb 2019 3.56
Mar 2019 3.26
Apr 2019 3.29
May 2019 2.63
Jun 2019 2.81
Jul 2019 3.24
Aug 2019 3.79
Sep 2019 4.03
Oct 2019 4.06
Nov 2019 4.2
Dec 2019 4.48
Jan 2020 4.52
Feb 2020 5.15
Mar 2020 6.36
Apr 2020 8.19

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Vancouver Real Estate Prices Stop Falling

Vancouver real estate prices made an annual increase for the first time in over a year. The region’s price index moved 0.61% higher in April, and is now up 0.36% from last year. Prices are still 4.39% down from the July 2018 peak, but annual gains have finally stopped showing declines. Just in time for a recession.

Vancouver Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Vancouver, according to the TNB HPI.

VancouverJul 1999Jan 2000Jul 2000Jan 2001Jul 2001Jan 2002Jul 2002Jan 2003Jul 2003Jan 2004Jul 2004Jan 2005Jul 2005Jan 2006Jul 2006Jan 2007Jul 2007Jan 2008Jul 2008Jan 2009Jul 2009Jan 2010Jul 2010Jan 2011Jul 2011Jan 2012Jul 2012Jan 2013Jul 2013Jan 2014Jul 2014Jan 2015Jul 2015Jan 2016Jul 2016Jan 2017Jul 2017Jan 2018Jul 2018Jan 2019Jul 2019Jan 2020-20-1001020304050Percent
Month Vancouver
Jul 1999 -1.87
Aug 1999 -1.35
Sep 1999 -0.72
Oct 1999 -0.04
Nov 1999 0.36
Dec 1999 1.23
Jan 2000 1.65
Feb 2000 1.79
Mar 2000 1.71
Apr 2000 1.45
May 2000 1.92
Jun 2000 2.25
Jul 2000 2.3
Aug 2000 2.02
Sep 2000 1.32
Oct 2000 0.8
Nov 2000 0.55
Dec 2000 0.58
Jan 2001 0.97
Feb 2001 0.95
Mar 2001 0.24
Apr 2001 0.25
May 2001 0.47
Jun 2001 1.08
Jul 2001 1.08
Aug 2001 1.24
Sep 2001 2.3
Oct 2001 3.08
Nov 2001 3.5
Dec 2001 3.23
Jan 2002 3.38
Feb 2002 4.3
Mar 2002 6.14
Apr 2002 7.07
May 2002 7.43
Jun 2002 7.37
Jul 2002 7.79
Aug 2002 8.08
Sep 2002 7.44
Oct 2002 7.41
Nov 2002 7.17
Dec 2002 7.82
Jan 2003 7.61
Feb 2003 8.07
Mar 2003 7.92
Apr 2003 7.78
May 2003 7.54
Jun 2003 7.34
Jul 2003 7.75
Aug 2003 8.11
Sep 2003 9.33
Oct 2003 10.2
Nov 2003 11.01
Dec 2003 11.23
Jan 2004 11.41
Feb 2004 11.87
Mar 2004 12.58
Apr 2004 13.36
May 2004 14.26
Jun 2004 14.92
Jul 2004 14.93
Aug 2004 14.49
Sep 2004 12.95
Oct 2004 11.99
Nov 2004 11.26
Dec 2004 11.37
Jan 2005 10.72
Feb 2005 9.78
Mar 2005 8.66
Apr 2005 8.68
May 2005 9.27
Jun 2005 8.73
Jul 2005 9.18
Aug 2005 10.54
Sep 2005 11.85
Oct 2005 12.41
Nov 2005 13.33
Dec 2005 13.48
Jan 2006 14.23
Feb 2006 15.14
Mar 2006 16.33
Apr 2006 16.15
May 2006 15.91
Jun 2006 17.27
Jul 2006 20.05
Aug 2006 22.65
Sep 2006 23.26
Oct 2006 22.89
Nov 2006 22.66
Dec 2006 20.83
Jan 2007 19.78
Feb 2007 17.69
Mar 2007 17.4
Apr 2007 17.65
May 2007 17.24
Jun 2007 16.4
Jul 2007 13.77
Aug 2007 11.32
Sep 2007 11.04
Oct 2007 11.38
Nov 2007 11.3
Dec 2007 11.83
Jan 2008 12.4
Feb 2008 12.86
Mar 2008 13.01
Apr 2008 12.35
May 2008 11.61
Jun 2008 10.25
Jul 2008 8.78
Aug 2008 6.85
Sep 2008 5.34
Oct 2008 3.14
Nov 2008 1.17
Dec 2008 -1.66
Jan 2009 -4.56
Feb 2009 -6.72
Mar 2009 -9.35
Apr 2009 -10.66
May 2009 -11.64
Jun 2009 -10.67
Jul 2009 -9.3
Aug 2009 -7.41
Sep 2009 -5.14
Oct 2009 -2.22
Nov 2009 0.94
Dec 2009 5.18
Jan 2010 9.3
Feb 2010 12.01
Mar 2010 14.2
Apr 2010 15.55
May 2010 16.99
Jun 2010 16.43
Jul 2010 14.12
Aug 2010 11.76
Sep 2010 9.02
Oct 2010 7.15
Nov 2010 5.85
Dec 2010 5.05
Jan 2011 4.82
Feb 2011 4.84
Mar 2011 5.09
Apr 2011 5.85
May 2011 6.41
Jun 2011 7.44
Jul 2011 8.87
Aug 2011 9.94
Sep 2011 10.38
Oct 2011 9.99
Nov 2011 9.06
Dec 2011 8.21
Jan 2012 7.03
Feb 2012 6.2
Mar 2012 6
Apr 2012 4.92
May 2012 4.37
Jun 2012 3.07
Jul 2012 1.61
Aug 2012 -0.27
Sep 2012 -1.42
Oct 2012 -0.99
Nov 2012 -1.35
Dec 2012 -2.01
Jan 2013 -2.54
Feb 2013 -1.53
Mar 2013 -1.48
Apr 2013 -2.9
May 2013 -3.24
Jun 2013 -2.83
Jul 2013 -2.04
Aug 2013 -0.08
Sep 2013 1.68
Oct 2013 2.7
Nov 2013 3.9
Dec 2013 5.51
Jan 2014 7.53
Feb 2014 7.69
Mar 2014 7.57
Apr 2014 8.99
May 2014 8.15
Jun 2014 6.13
Jul 2014 6.06
Aug 2014 6.14
Sep 2014 6.48
Oct 2014 6.54
Nov 2014 5.93
Dec 2014 4.96
Jan 2015 5.09
Feb 2015 5.71
Mar 2015 5.3
Apr 2015 4.81
May 2015 6.16
Jun 2015 8.48
Jul 2015 9.92
Aug 2015 9.66
Sep 2015 10.43
Oct 2015 9.83
Nov 2015 11.28
Dec 2015 12.9
Jan 2016 12.49
Feb 2016 14.47
Mar 2016 17.32
Apr 2016 19.81
May 2016 21.71
Jun 2016 23.37
Jul 2016 24.31
Aug 2016 25.75
Sep 2016 24.02
Oct 2016 22.52
Nov 2016 19.28
Dec 2016 16.99
Jan 2017 16.36
Feb 2017 14.31
Mar 2017 12.2
Apr 2017 9.71
May 2017 8.2
Jun 2017 8.07
Jul 2017 8.56
Aug 2017 9.27
Sep 2017 10.55
Oct 2017 11.99
Nov 2017 13.54
Dec 2017 15.97
Jan 2018 16.95
Feb 2018 15.79
Mar 2018 15.43
Apr 2018 15.89
May 2018 15.42
Jun 2018 13.28
Jul 2018 10.63
Aug 2018 7.64
Sep 2018 6.22
Oct 2018 4.63
Nov 2018 3.93
Dec 2018 1.41
Jan 2019 -0.02
Feb 2019 -1.11
Mar 2019 -2.1
Apr 2019 -2.81
May 2019 -4.05
Jun 2019 -4.86
Jul 2019 -6.23
Aug 2019 -6.63
Sep 2019 -7.1
Oct 2019 -6.17
Nov 2019 -5.19
Dec 2019 -4.05
Jan 2020 -3.6
Feb 2020 -2.15
Mar 2020 -0.69
Apr 2020 0.36

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Montreal Real Estate Prices Grow Nearly Double Digits

Montreal real estate prices were up almost double digits compared to last year. The index increased 1.67% in April, and is up 9.51% from the same month last year. The region’s prices are at a new all-time high, and the annual price growth rate is starting to look like a parabolic ascent. Although it would be surprising to see that continue, considering how quickly mortgage payment deferrals are rising in Quebec.

Montreal Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Montreal, according to the TNB HPI.

MontrealJul 1999Jan 2000Jul 2000Jan 2001Jul 2001Jan 2002Jul 2002Jan 2003Jul 2003Jan 2004Jul 2004Jan 2005Jul 2005Jan 2006Jul 2006Jan 2007Jul 2007Jan 2008Jul 2008Jan 2009Jul 2009Jan 2010Jul 2010Jan 2011Jul 2011Jan 2012Jul 2012Jan 2013Jul 2013Jan 2014Jul 2014Jan 2015Jul 2015Jan 2016Jul 2016Jan 2017Jul 2017Jan 2018Jul 2018Jan 2019Jul 2019Jan 202001020304050Percent
Month Montreal
Jul 1999 3.66
Aug 1999 3.95
Sep 1999 4.12
Oct 1999 4.17
Nov 1999 4.69
Dec 1999 4.33
Jan 2000 4.26
Feb 2000 3.87
Mar 2000 4.32
Apr 2000 4.19
May 2000 4.47
Jun 2000 5.07
Jul 2000 5.54
Aug 2000 5.61
Sep 2000 5.75
Oct 2000 5.49
Nov 2000 5.05
Dec 2000 4.92
Jan 2001 4.94
Feb 2001 5.35
Mar 2001 5.19
Apr 2001 5.14
May 2001 5.14
Jun 2001 5.49
Jul 2001 6.03
Aug 2001 6.72
Sep 2001 6.38
Oct 2001 6.19
Nov 2001 6.08
Dec 2001 6.18
Jan 2002 6.31
Feb 2002 6.54
Mar 2002 7.38
Apr 2002 8.13
May 2002 8.44
Jun 2002 8.83
Jul 2002 9.65
Aug 2002 10.2
Sep 2002 10.84
Oct 2002 11.47
Nov 2002 12.1
Dec 2002 13.02
Jan 2003 13.11
Feb 2003 13.93
Mar 2003 13.48
Apr 2003 13.56
May 2003 13.41
Jun 2003 13.13
Jul 2003 12.01
Aug 2003 11.3
Sep 2003 11.76
Oct 2003 12.38
Nov 2003 12.23
Dec 2003 11.08
Jan 2004 11.51
Feb 2004 11.19
Mar 2004 11.91
Apr 2004 11.82
May 2004 12.68
Jun 2004 12.55
Jul 2004 12.12
Aug 2004 10.92
Sep 2004 10.13
Oct 2004 9.43
Nov 2004 9.76
Dec 2004 10.51
Jan 2005 10.14
Feb 2005 10.12
Mar 2005 9.52
Apr 2005 9.83
May 2005 8.93
Jun 2005 8.92
Jul 2005 7.33
Aug 2005 7.27
Sep 2005 7.42
Oct 2005 7.57
Nov 2005 7.41
Dec 2005 5.97
Jan 2006 5.77
Feb 2006 5.57
Mar 2006 5.98
Apr 2006 5.55
May 2006 5.68
Jun 2006 4.92
Jul 2006 8.31
Aug 2006 8.95
Sep 2006 8.29
Oct 2006 8.3
Nov 2006 8.17
Dec 2006 9.02
Jan 2007 9.55
Feb 2007 8.04
Mar 2007 7.99
Apr 2007 8.05
May 2007 9.14
Jun 2007 9.52
Jul 2007 7.1
Aug 2007 6.87
Sep 2007 8.03
Oct 2007 7.96
Nov 2007 8.07
Dec 2007 7.34
Jan 2008 7.36
Feb 2008 8.01
Mar 2008 7.17
Apr 2008 6.52
May 2008 5.76
Jun 2008 5.77
Jul 2008 5.97
Aug 2008 5.93
Sep 2008 5.54
Oct 2008 5.07
Nov 2008 4.5
Dec 2008 4.08
Jan 2009 3.78
Feb 2009 2.47
Mar 2009 2.42
Apr 2009 1.73
May 2009 2.08
Jun 2009 2.64
Jul 2009 2.78
Aug 2009 3.42
Sep 2009 2.71
Oct 2009 3.3
Nov 2009 3.57
Dec 2009 5.08
Jan 2010 5.26
Feb 2010 7.08
Mar 2010 7.49
Apr 2010 8.67
May 2010 8.34
Jun 2010 7.99
Jul 2010 8.12
Aug 2010 8.17
Sep 2010 8.58
Oct 2010 7.64
Nov 2010 6.05
Dec 2010 5.96
Jan 2011 6.22
Feb 2011 7.11
Mar 2011 6.85
Apr 2011 6.79
May 2011 6.37
Jun 2011 6.37
Jul 2011 6.12
Aug 2011 5.59
Sep 2011 5.1
Oct 2011 5.42
Nov 2011 7.22
Dec 2011 6.16
Jan 2012 5.59
Feb 2012 4.42
Mar 2012 5.11
Apr 2012 4.94
May 2012 4.5
Jun 2012 4.44
Jul 2012 4.27
Aug 2012 4.1
Sep 2012 3.82
Oct 2012 3.62
Nov 2012 2.78
Dec 2012 3.04
Jan 2013 2.6
Feb 2013 2.02
Mar 2013 1.54
Apr 2013 1.26
May 2013 1.92
Jun 2013 1.43
Jul 2013 1.09
Aug 2013 0.7
Sep 2013 0.8
Oct 2013 0.95
Nov 2013 0.81
Dec 2013 0.44
Jan 2014 2.38
Feb 2014 3.51
Mar 2014 3.05
Apr 2014 2.93
May 2014 2.01
Jun 2014 2.29
Jul 2014 2.58
Aug 2014 2.42
Sep 2014 2.29
Oct 2014 2.44
Nov 2014 2.85
Dec 2014 3.61
Jan 2015 1.87
Feb 2015 1.09
Mar 2015 1.2
Apr 2015 0.74
May 2015 1.33
Jun 2015 0.95
Jul 2015 1.19
Aug 2015 1.21
Sep 2015 1.54
Oct 2015 1.28
Nov 2015 1.96
Dec 2015 1.62
Jan 2016 0.99
Feb 2016 0.56
Mar 2016 0.87
Apr 2016 1.86
May 2016 1.51
Jun 2016 1.43
Jul 2016 1.47
Aug 2016 2.22
Sep 2016 2.32
Oct 2016 2.03
Nov 2016 1.22
Dec 2016 1.32
Jan 2017 2.32
Feb 2017 2.94
Mar 2017 2.78
Apr 2017 2.41
May 2017 2.43
Jun 2017 2.75
Jul 2017 3.06
Aug 2017 3.16
Sep 2017 3.78
Oct 2017 4.39
Nov 2017 5.21
Dec 2017 5.76
Jan 2018 5.43
Feb 2018 4.98
Mar 2018 4.27
Apr 2018 3.93
May 2018 3.64
Jun 2018 3.59
Jul 2018 4.01
Aug 2018 4.77
Sep 2018 4.85
Oct 2018 5.02
Nov 2018 4.39
Dec 2018 4.37
Jan 2019 4.46
Feb 2019 5.15
Mar 2019 5.46
Apr 2019 5.06
May 2019 5.25
Jun 2019 5.38
Jul 2019 5.8
Aug 2019 5.75
Sep 2019 6.28
Oct 2019 5.97
Nov 2019 6.37
Dec 2019 6.37
Jan 2020 6.69
Feb 2020 7.5
Mar 2020 7.54
Apr 2020 9.51

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Calgary Real Estate Prices Are Still Down From 2014

Calgary real estate prices are still down after over half a decade. The index increased 0.20% in April, but that still places prices 0.80% lower than last year. Prices are still down 8.05% from the peak reached in October 2014. Yes, Prices haven’t recovered in over half a decade, and they appear to be getting worse.

Calgary Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Calgary, according to the TNB HPI.

CalgaryFeb 2000Aug 2000Feb 2001Aug 2001Feb 2002Aug 2002Feb 2003Aug 2003Feb 2004Aug 2004Feb 2005Aug 2005Feb 2006Aug 2006Feb 2007Aug 2007Feb 2008Aug 2008Feb 2009Aug 2009Feb 2010Aug 2010Feb 2011Aug 2011Feb 2012Aug 2012Feb 2013Aug 2013Feb 2014Aug 2014Feb 2015Aug 2015Feb 2016Aug 2016Feb 2017Aug 2017Feb 2018Aug 2018Feb 2019Aug 2019Feb 2020-20-1001020304050Percent
Month Calgary
Feb 2000 3.1
Mar 2000 4.35
Apr 2000 4.92
May 2000 5.59
Jun 2000 5.23
Jul 2000 5.25
Aug 2000 4.78
Sep 2000 4.72
Oct 2000 4.33
Nov 2000 4.35
Dec 2000 4.72
Jan 2001 5.12
Feb 2001 5.03
Mar 2001 4.57
Apr 2001 4
May 2001 3.63
Jun 2001 3.8
Jul 2001 3.79
Aug 2001 4.58
Sep 2001 4.77
Oct 2001 5.61
Nov 2001 5.37
Dec 2001 5.42
Jan 2002 4.94
Feb 2002 5.42
Mar 2002 5.92
Apr 2002 6.97
May 2002 7.53
Jun 2002 8.01
Jul 2002 8.11
Aug 2002 8.08
Sep 2002 8.36
Oct 2002 8.75
Nov 2002 9.05
Dec 2002 9.21
Jan 2003 9.15
Feb 2003 8.94
Mar 2003 8.46
Apr 2003 7.84
May 2003 7.54
Jun 2003 7.05
Jul 2003 6.91
Aug 2003 6.67
Sep 2003 6.27
Oct 2003 5.89
Nov 2003 5.72
Dec 2003 5.63
Jan 2004 5.29
Feb 2004 5.35
Mar 2004 5.66
Apr 2004 5.95
May 2004 5.77
Jun 2004 5.85
Jul 2004 5.79
Aug 2004 5.81
Sep 2004 5.7
Oct 2004 5.87
Nov 2004 6.3
Dec 2004 6.64
Jan 2005 6.47
Feb 2005 6.36
Mar 2005 5.96
Apr 2005 6.69
May 2005 7.55
Jun 2005 7.48
Jul 2005 7.42
Aug 2005 9.64
Sep 2005 9.99
Oct 2005 10.21
Nov 2005 10.41
Dec 2005 10.79
Jan 2006 12.77
Feb 2006 14.96
Mar 2006 18.6
Apr 2006 21.55
May 2006 25.83
Jun 2006 30.75
Jul 2006 35.18
Aug 2006 38.6
Sep 2006 41.97
Oct 2006 43.96
Nov 2006 44.49
Dec 2006 43.91
Jan 2007 38.12
Feb 2007 34.51
Mar 2007 30.99
Apr 2007 32.15
May 2007 29.61
Jun 2007 27.89
Jul 2007 26.33
Aug 2007 21.74
Sep 2007 18.33
Oct 2007 15.15
Nov 2007 13.14
Dec 2007 11.62
Jan 2008 12.85
Feb 2008 12.12
Mar 2008 10.63
Apr 2008 6.17
May 2008 3.64
Jun 2008 0.87
Jul 2008 -2
Aug 2008 -4.53
Sep 2008 -6.57
Oct 2008 -7.14
Nov 2008 -7.4
Dec 2008 -7.69
Jan 2009 -8.53
Feb 2009 -7.9
Mar 2009 -8.57
Apr 2009 -9.65
May 2009 -12.04
Jun 2009 -12.44
Jul 2009 -11.19
Aug 2009 -8.69
Sep 2009 -5.88
Oct 2009 -4.5
Nov 2009 -2.81
Dec 2009 -0.17
Jan 2010 2.06
Feb 2010 1.75
Mar 2010 2.32
Apr 2010 3.34
May 2010 6.92
Jun 2010 7.55
Jul 2010 7.05
Aug 2010 4.82
Sep 2010 1.46
Oct 2010 0.05
Nov 2010 -1.34
Dec 2010 -2.69
Jan 2011 -3.67
Feb 2011 -3.55
Mar 2011 -3.27
Apr 2011 -3.2
May 2011 -3.76
Jun 2011 -2.38
Jul 2011 -0.5
Aug 2011 0.83
Sep 2011 2.24
Oct 2011 1.74
Nov 2011 0.54
Dec 2011 0.91
Jan 2012 1.56
Feb 2012 1.28
Mar 2012 0.9
Apr 2012 1.88
May 2012 3.45
Jun 2012 3.42
Jul 2012 1.14
Aug 2012 0.85
Sep 2012 2.2
Oct 2012 3.52
Nov 2012 5.72
Dec 2012 4.06
Jan 2013 4.29
Feb 2013 3.62
Mar 2013 5.71
Apr 2013 5.51
May 2013 5.84
Jun 2013 5.52
Jul 2013 5.88
Aug 2013 6.5
Sep 2013 5.55
Oct 2013 6.66
Nov 2013 5.92
Dec 2013 6.51
Jan 2014 7.09
Feb 2014 9.63
Mar 2014 9.68
Apr 2014 10.01
May 2014 8.66
Jun 2014 8.08
Jul 2014 8.15
Aug 2014 7.87
Sep 2014 9.46
Oct 2014 9.07
Nov 2014 9.17
Dec 2014 8.34
Jan 2015 7.11
Feb 2015 5.6
Mar 2015 4.37
Apr 2015 3.04
May 2015 -1.35
Jun 2015 0.19
Jul 2015 -2.3
Aug 2015 0.7
Sep 2015 0.3
Oct 2015 -0.98
Nov 2015 -2.03
Dec 2015 -2.63
Jan 2016 -2.65
Feb 2016 -3.26
Mar 2016 -3.7
Apr 2016 -3.73
May 2016 -0.22
Jun 2016 -2.41
Jul 2016 -0.58
Aug 2016 -4.48
Sep 2016 -4.87
Oct 2016 -3.61
Nov 2016 -1.74
Dec 2016 0.57
Jan 2017 1.37
Feb 2017 1
Mar 2017 1.01
Apr 2017 1.09
May 2017 1.28
Jun 2017 1.36
Jul 2017 1.85
Aug 2017 2.16
Sep 2017 2.58
Oct 2017 1.79
Nov 2017 1.82
Dec 2017 0.53
Jan 2018 0.13
Feb 2018 0.61
Mar 2018 0.42
Apr 2018 0.15
May 2018 0.06
Jun 2018 0.33
Jul 2018 -0.11
Aug 2018 -0.47
Sep 2018 -1.29
Oct 2018 -1.38
Nov 2018 -2.7
Dec 2018 -2.64
Jan 2019 -2.77
Feb 2019 -2.71
Mar 2019 -2.79
Apr 2019 -3.11
May 2019 -3.16
Jun 2019 -3.75
Jul 2019 -3.06
Aug 2019 -2.26
Sep 2019 -1.93
Oct 2019 -1.7
Nov 2019 -0.9
Dec 2019 -0.94
Jan 2020 -1.59
Feb 2020 -1.7
Mar 2020 -1.31
Apr 2020 -0.8

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Overall the numbers looked strong, but there should be a little skepticism going forward. The report adds that high unemployment levels could mean homeowners are “unable to meet mortgages payments.” This could spark a flood of inventory, which in their opinion “could mean downward pressure on house prices.”